Tech Rally Powers Record Gains for Stocks(科技股飙升)

 新闻资讯     |      2019-07-22 11:31

Tech Rally Powers Record Gains for Stocks

 

科技股涨势创新高

DJ Tech Rally Powers Record Gains for Stocks 


By Amrith Ramkumar 

The biggest technology companies are propelling major U.S. indexes'
record run, highlighting investor enthusiasm for the hottest stock
sector as economic growth softens. 

Together, Microsoft Corp., Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook
Inc. have accounted for 19% of the S&P 500's total return this year,
according to S&P Dow Jones Indices data through Thursday. That
rate is roughly in line with the contributions made by the biggest
tech stocks in 2017 and much of last year, before a fourth-quarter
reversal helped roil markets. 

Giant asset managers including Vanguard Group, State Street Corp.
and T. Rowe Price Associates Inc. generally increased their stakes in
these firms as well as Alphabet Inc. and Netflix Inc. in the first quarter
of the year, FactSet data show. 

The concentrated gains contrast with much of the market. Seven
of the S&P 500's 11 sectors remain solidly below records, and
shares of small companies that stand to benefit if the Federal
Reserve cuts interest rates are well below their recent peaks. 

The divergence shows investors are putting a premium on assets
that offer the prospect of significant growth, which is perceived as
scarce with falling rates and lukewarm economic data. Investors
in the coming days will weigh second-quarter results from
Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook, while Apple is set to report July 30. 

"Many people just want them whether interest rates are rising,
declining or staying where they are," said Jamie Cox, managing
partner at Harris Financial Group, which owns shares of Microsoft
and Amazon and has been increasing its position in Microsoft recently. 

Fears that trade tensions will slow global growth have kept many
investors cautious, pushing them toward the FAANG stocks -- Facebook,
Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet -- as well as
Microsoft. Many view these firms as less dependent on economic
activity and attractive because they tend to participate in hot areas
for investment such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence. 

"If you don't own a core holding in some of the leaders, you might be
missing out," said Mona Mahajan, U.S. investment strategist at
Allianz Global Investors. "Those few names are probably benefiting
disproportionately because they have real growth stories behind them." 

At the same time, some investors are keeping an eye on signs
the rally might be vulnerable. 

Netflix, among the most popular shares in recent years, tumbled more
than 10% Thursday after subscriber data in its latest quarter
disappointed Wall Street. Fund managers surveyed by Bank
of America Merrill Lynch earlier this month ranked U.S. tech
stocks the second-most-crowded trade across markets,
trailing only U.S. Treasurys. Crowded trades are ones viewed as
so likely to pay off that bad news often results in large losses. 

"The ones we tend to be a little more leery about are the ones
that are growing just because of momentum," said Omar Aguilar,
chief investment officer for equities and multiasset strategies
at Charles Schwab Investment Management. 

The FAANG group and Microsoft are in the top 10% of most crowded
S&P 500 stocks, according to an analysis by Ann Larson, managing
director of global quantitative research at AllianceBernstein. 

Her firm uses a model to assess popular trades that factors in top
holdings by active managers, stakes they have been building in the
past several quarters, earnings estimates, stock performance and
bank analyst ratings. The analysis also shows that technology
is currently the most crowded sector. 

The biggest tech firms aren't the only ones benefiting.
Semiconductor stocks have recovered from a dismal May and
climbed in five consecutive weeks even as companies warn that
tariffs are hurting their businesses. Shares of smaller social-media
companies are rallying in lockstep, with Twitter Inc. up 28% in
2019 and Snap Inc., the parent company of Snapchat, more than
doubling this year. 

Some of those companies are expected to record losses or slower
profit growth moving forward, but investors say their gains illustrate a
continuing search for greater returns as global bond yields fall.
Yields decline as bond prices rise and have plumbed multiyear lows recently. 

The rally is increasing attention on whether stocks are too expensive
based on common valuation metrics. The information-technology
sector now has a price/sales ratio of 4.6, FactSet data based on
revenues in the past year show, while the broader S&P 500 has
a ratio of 2.15. Facebook, Netflix and Microsoft have much
higher valuations based on sales than Amazon and Apple. 

But those concerns have prevailed for years, and some say the
time hasn't come to act on them. 

"The playbook says invest in higher-quality names during times
like these, and people are following the playbook," said Brent
Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth
Management. 

Write to Amrith Ramkumar at amrith.ramkumar@wsj.com 


 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires 

July 21, 2019 05:30 ET (09:30 GMT) 

Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. 1
 

DJ Tech Rally Power创下股票涨幅


作者:Amrith Ramkumar

最大的科技公司正在推动美国主要股指创纪录的运行,突显出随着经济增长放缓,投资者对最热门的股票板块的热情。

微软公司,苹果公司,亚马逊公司。和Facebook Inc.根据截至周四的标准普尔道琼斯指数(S&P Dow Jones Indices)数据,已占标准普尔500指数今年总回报率的19%。这一比率大致与2017年和去年大部分时间最大的科技股的贡献率一致,当时第四季度的逆转帮助搅乱了市场。

包括先锋集团(Vanguard Group)、道富集团(State Street Corp.)和T.Rowe Price Associates Inc.在内的大型资产管理公司。一般情况下,他们增加了在这些公司以及字母表公司的股份。和Netflix Inc.今年第一季度,FactSet的数据显示。

集中的涨幅与大部分市场形成了对比。标准普尔500指数的11个板块中有7个仍坚挺地低于历史纪录,如果美联储(Fed)降息,将受益的小公司的股价也远低于近期的峰值水平。

这种背离表明,投资者正在对具有显著增长前景的资产进行溢价,这种资产在利率不断下降和经济数据不温不火的情况下被认为是稀缺的。未来几天,投资者将权衡亚马逊(Amazon)、字母表(Alphabet)和Facebook的第二季度业绩,而苹果将于7月30日发布业绩报告。

哈里斯金融集团(Harris Financial Group)的管理合伙人杰米·考克斯(Jamie Cox)说,“很多人只是想要他们,不管利率是上升、下降还是保持在目前的水平。”哈里斯金融集团拥有微软和亚马逊的股份,最近一直在增加在微软的地位。

对贸易紧张将减缓全球增长的担忧使许多投资者保持谨慎,将他们推向FAANG的股票-Facebook、亚马逊、苹果、Netflix和谷歌母公司Alphabet-以及微软。许多人认为这些公司对经济活动的依赖性较低,具有吸引力,因为它们倾向于参与云计算和人工智能等热门投资领域。

“如果你不持有一些领头羊的核心股份,你可能会错过,”安联全球投资者(Allianz Global Investors)美国投资策略师Mona Mahajan表示。“这几家公司可能受益不成比例,因为它们背后有真实的增长故事。”

与此同时,一些投资者正密切关注涨势可能脆弱的迹象。

Netflix是近年来最受欢迎的股票之一,在其最近一个季度的订户数据令华尔街失望之后,该公司股价周四暴跌逾10%。本月早些时候接受美银美林(Bank Of America Merrill Lynch)调查的基金经理将美国科技股列为市场上第二大最拥挤的交易,仅次于美国国债。拥挤的交易是那些被认为很有可能获得回报的交易,坏消息往往会导致巨大的损失。

查尔斯·施瓦布投资管理公司(Charles Schwab Investment Management)股票和多资产策略首席投资官奥马尔·阿吉拉尔(Omar Aguilar)表示:“我们倾向于对那些仅仅因为势头而增长的公司持更多怀疑态度。”

根据AllianceBernstein全球定量研究董事总经理安·拉森(Ann Larson)的分析,FAANG集团和微软在最拥挤的标准普尔500指数成分股中位居前10%。

她的公司使用一个模型来评估受欢迎的交易,这些交易包括活跃经理人的顶级持股,过去几个季度他们一直在积累的股份,盈利估计,股票表现和银行分析师评级。分析还表明,技术是目前最拥挤的部门。

最大的科技公司并不是唯一的受益者。半导体类股已从5月的低迷中复苏,并连续5周上涨,尽管各公司警告称,关税正在损害它们的业务。规模较小的社交媒体公司的股价正在同步上涨,Twitter公司(Twitter Inc.)。2019年上涨了28%,Snapchat的母公司Snap Inc.今年上涨了一倍多。

预计其中一些公司未来将录得亏损或利润增长放缓,但投资者表示,随着全球债券收益率下降,这些公司的收益表明他们在继续寻求更高的回报。随着债券价格上涨,收益率下降,最近已跌至多年低点。

根据共同的估值标准,这轮涨势正日益引起人们对股票是否过于昂贵的关注。基于过去一年收入的FactSet数据显示,信息技术行业目前的价格/销售比率为4.6,而更广泛的标准普尔500指数(S&P500)的价格/销售比率为2.15。Facebook、Netflix和微软基于销售额的估值远高于亚马逊和苹果。

但这些担忧多年来一直盛行,一些人表示,现在还没有采取行动的时候。

西北互惠财富管理公司(Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management)首席投资策略师布伦特·舒特(Brent Schutte)表示:“策略说明是在这样的时期投资质量更高的公司,人们正在遵循策略。”

写信给amrith ramkumar@wsj.com amrith.ramkumar@wsj.com


 

(结束)道琼斯通讯社

July 21, 2019 05:30 ET (09:30 GMT) 

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